The following was originally a (typically longwinded) reply on the Voyageur's forum. I repost here because I think it's something that TFC supporters need to take note of and in some ways its exactly the sort of writing I've always done that was probably more appropriate for a blog:
We're months from the start of the season, there's a lot of time for both teams to change and take shape, TFC is looking better at this point in the off season than they ever have before,* and I hate making explicit predictions but, honestly, from what I've seen from Jesse Marsch Toronto FC fans need to start preparing themselves for something that most can't even imagine: a Montreal team that is competitive in their very first season, capable of finishing ahead of TFC, and possibly even making the playoffs.
Most LIKELY, simply due to being an expansion team, Montreal will be like most other expansion teams: competitive enough with the rest of the league with their first 11 to 15 players but lacking the depth to sustain a playoff PPG pace over the course of an entire season as injuries, suspensions, and international absences occur. They'll be helped in that 2012 is a rare non-WC, non-GC summer in North America and they seem unlikely to have many Canadian or American internationals anyways but MLS seasons are tough. The massive travel, different geography and climate of its cities, and physical style of play in the league makes much of the test of MLS a question of teams' depth more than anything else. But Marsch is being clever by clearly putting an emphasis, completely unlike Mo (and Winter...), on players with MLS experience in leadership positions. Most of them are not stars and many have played on some pretty poor MLS teams at some point but they've all shown that they know how to be successful in the league. That said, it's worth keeping in mind that since the major expansion wave in MLS began in 2005 only one team out of EIGHT - Seattle - has been able to be successful in their first season. It's a tough hill to climb and the odds are long. Again, most likely, AT BEST, Montreal will have to be satisfied with being a fringe playoff team - like Portland in 2011 - that fades down the stretch.
TFC on the other hand, if they don't backslide from where they ended the season last year, are most likely to, AT WORST, to be a fringe playoff team that stays in or around the playoff picture until the final month even if they don't, in the end, make the playoffs. TFC's improvement after the team was rebuilt (again) in mid-summer has probably been overstated because of the team's success in making it to the knockout stages of the CCL. Yes, they finally managed to win an away game and beat Columbus (convincingly) too but, as Duane Rollins pointed out on CSN, that team was only middle of the pack in terms of PPG and they only won 3 games in the final third of the league season. Hardly a blistering pace even if it felt like a massive improvement over the beginning of the season and the team was clearly capable of playing better soccer than they had done up 'til that point. TFC could be better if the improvement continues but it's not impossible that they could be worse. De Guzman's knee injuries might recur and even if that doesn't keep him out of the line-up it's clear that it massively affects his play, Koevermans and Frings aren't young and will have to adapt to a full season of North American travel (and summer), and the back line is still very much a work in progress. It doesn't seem LIKELY but it's not impossible that TFC could be worse in 2012 than the team that looked so good in beating Dallas at PHP in mid-October.
Long story short: (in my estimation and based on what I've seen so far) if the Impact stay healthy, get some early victories and self belief, and can sustain that over the course of a season it's not impossible that they could make the playoffs. If TFC don't keep improving (or actually backslide) from where they ended the 2011 season its very possible they won't.
That could be a disaster in TFC-land that parts of our fanbase are probably not prepared to deal with. It's sorta exciting though and should make for some great games between the teams if they can both stay around the playoff race all year.
When does the season start?
*Keep in mind: TFC hadn't, to the best of my recollection, traded for DeRo yet at this point between '08 and '09.
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