Saturday 14 July 2012

Julian De Gone

24 hours to digest this deal and I'm happier than ever.  The pessimism around Toronto FC right now is incredible.

Folks, 2012 is a write off. 0-0-9 to start has a way of doing that.
TFC, for once, made a prudent decision to accept that and start preparing for next season early.  The way I see it, the idea, popular in some places, that this is all a panic move to save season tickets renewals couldn't be more the opposite of what's going on.
No, it's not tweaking.  "Tweaking", depending on how you define that, was at best going to get us non-embarrassing results after the international break: "Danny and Ryan, you two go play up top.  Everyone else defend deeper and get the ball up to them quickly so that we're not playing with fire in our own end. Try and win some second balls in the opponents end to set up the offense.  Midfield and defense move forward as a unit and don't get stretched."  So far IT'S WORKED!

What's going on now is Paul Mariner has been given the liberty to make the hard choices, is taking flak for it, and moving towards the team he wants.
Plata and Soolsma were luxuries.  They aren't CFs and in any sort of two striker system were going to have trouble finding a home.  At best the could play as a second striker underneath but, with the KoevDan/RJ tandem working so well, it shouldn't be a surprise that Mariner would want more hard running physical forwards who don't necessitate changing the system when they come in as back-ups.  Regardless of what people think neither Plata nor Soolsma are cut out for wide midfield positions in any variation of a 4-4-2.  They're wingers and in a system without true wingers they're gonna struggle to find homes.

Converting either to CAM?  A stop gap.  We've already got Silva and Avila who are more natural in that position, don't take up international spots, and are young enough to continue developing.  I don't think either are necessarily gonna be more than subs or fringe starters in this league long term but I don't think Soolsma or Plata were ever likely to be starters at that position either.  Obviously there's a lot of emphasis on where, if they use it, TFC should look to add another DP.  If it was my choice that's where I'd go.
Look around the league at the teams that play the best football and you'll see a fairly consistent trend: they've all got a great string pulling creative CAM.  They don't always start as DPs but most end up that way once they've proven their bona fides.  Ferreira, Rosales, GBS, MORALES(!), even Feilhaber in NE who we'll presumably face tonight.  Wanna play good football?  Go find the next guy like that TFC.  Hoof ball can stop when we've got a stable defense and an elite link guy who demands the ball, makes his own space, and we can play through in transition.  The sort of guy who can rebuild an attack when it breaks down by finding the unlikely ball.  Support him with a goal scorer (Danny), a ball winner (Frings), some runners (Dunfield and RJ for now; we can use more and better in the Will Johnson mold), and a stable defense (project!) and you've got yourself a pretty good MLS team capable of playing an unsophisticated but attractive enough "system".

How does that fit into Julian's departure?
Well, that's what makes it such an incredibly good move!

Look, Julian wasn't coming back next year.  I know that saddens some people but it just had to be the case.
This year is a write off, Julian wasn't coming back, and, FOR ONCE, TFC actually turned someone into an asset rather than just letting them depart!

TFC got a back up in a position where we're thin who may or may not make the team next year.  That's better than a guy who almost definitely wouldn't!  This is a smart, LONG TERM VISION, team building sort of move.  Exactly the sort of thing people were always asking for.
Further, it lets TFC go shopping this summer, while more players are out of contract, for a possible DP.  That doesn't have to be about ticket sales or turning around 2012.  It CAN be about building a better team for 2013.  In the RSL turnaround story a great deal of emphasis is always put on Kreis' recruitment of Morales in the summer of 2007 after taking over that May.  The team that made the playoffs for the first time the next year, that won the cup the year after that, that nearly won the CCL almost four years later?  It all started in the summer of 2007 when that season was already all but over.  That RSL team nearly finished behind our expansion team!

So for the people questioning why they’d make the deal now or who are concerned about our short bench... chill out.
You make the deal when it's available.  From what I've read TFC made Dallas an offer they couldn't refuse so they'll probably do this anyways but I don't care if TFC don't sign a player next week.  This shouldn't about beating Colorado on Wednesday or even looking good for the rest of the season.  This should be about making one of the most important signings in TFC history and doing it RIGHT this summer.  If that means they lose a few more games this summer that's, for once, okay!  If we have a short bench tonight that's okay.  If we find the right guy - and honestly, Julian had long since proven not to be the right guy - he'll have the entire second half to bed in and will be available right from the start of 2013.  Rather than having to wait until mid-2013 to find that player we can have the core of our roster decided on before 2012 ends.

It's counter-intuitive but these moves, all of them, are about creating stability.  The turnover was going to happen and doing it now rather than later will provide for some actual continuity for the new team that emerges.  It's the same argument I always made for canning Mo long before the debacle in NY: you take the short term pain of discontinuity because it's only once you've found the right guy that you'll ever enjoy the benefits of continuity.  Yes, we've suffered a continuity deficit at this club since day (negative) one but it's equally true that too often TFC's problem has been sticking with the wrong people too long.
Will it all work?  That's impossible to know.  But, again, I'm actually happy about the direction of this club for this first time in a long time.  Honestly, I was excited about their prospects going into 2009 and again this year -  oops!  - but I might be happiest about TFC right now.  (I only really appreciated Preki in retrospect and his roster blow up (and terrible preseason) made it impossible to believe in that team in early 2010.)

For years I've been pegged as one of the Negatrons of TFC and I actually find it incredible that now I'm somehow the "cheerleader" arguing for patience and other people to calm down!  I'm not just being shamelessly contrarian: it's TFC, they'll probably fuck this up, but before they do I can actually like the direction we're heading!
Forza Mariner!

#nMo4life

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